California Weekly Market Data ending June 10, 2024

Big jobs number spooks bond traders, but hides some underlying cracks

The household survey, which places more emphasis on small businesses compared to the employer survey, indicated a rise in job losses. This suggests that the labor market may not be as robust as the headline figures suggest.

Rates surge as economy refuses to cool

Although C.A.R. has not ruled out a rate cut for 2024, the decline in mortgage rates is expected to be modest due to the long-term projection of a 2.5%-3% Fed Funds Rate.

Home sales holding up remarkably well despite noisy rate environment

The current forecast predicts that sales will continue to rise, surpassing the 300,000 mark by the end of the year. However, the peak levels seen in 2021 are still years away.

Housing supply keeps rising, but normal still a long way of

Although more than 2/3 of California homeowners secured a rate below 4% during the pandemic, which provides a significant disincentive for existing homeowners to move, inventory has been rising throughout 2024.

The service sector results suggest consumers aren’t done spending yet

Both ‘business activity,’ a measure of current demand, and ‘new orders,’ which measure future demand, rose last month as the index posted its largest gain in nearly a year and a half.

The ongoing strength of the U.S. economy continues to drive severe volatility in the bond market that impacts 30-year mortgage rates and, thus, the housing market here in California.

SOURCE : California Association of Realtors

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